U.S. housing markets are anticipated to stay healthy through at the very least the end of 2018, without any housing bubble on the horizon without any projection of home prices falling, as reported by the Fall 2017 edition of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR), released by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company.
Bubble? Not anywhere on the horizon for U.S. real estate market
The HaMMR features the Arch MI Risk Index, a statistical model as outlined by recent housing market indicators. The index indicates that during the next 24 months, the possibilities of home price declines in America’s 401 largest cities averages just 4% – an unusually low number.
The trend reflects broad-based favorable fundamentals, for instance a tightening employment market, relatively low interest rates, a reduced number of homes for sale as well as an overall housing shortage.
“People waiting for home prices to fall before buying may want to change their strategy, as the overall housing market is expected to stay strong for the foreseeable future,” says Dr. Ralph G. DeFranco, Global Chief Economist, Mortgage Services of Arch Capital Services Inc. “Our research shows no housing bubble is forming in the United States, with prices overall near historic norms compared to incomes.”
The HaMMR also finds that some recent concern about U.S. home prices hitting all-time highs is overblown because, after adjusting for inflation, national home prices remain 10% under their prior peak.
However, recovery from the housing crash just isn’t universal. While prices have gone up in Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota and the Pacific Northwest (Washington and Oregon), areas like New England and energy-extraction states like Alaska, West Virginia and Wyoming are increasing slowly.
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