Mortgage Rates Continue to keep New 3-Year Lows

There’s no telling how long this “initial reaction” period will continue and what the longer term effects will be, for the time being, the short term effects have been strongly positive for rates. The most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote is still 3.5% on top tier scenarios, but 3.375% gained a great deal of ground today. With just a bit more improvement, the average lender would be at 3.375% for the first time since early 2013. This is also the lowest stably-maintained rate we’ve ever recorded (there were scattered cases of 3.25% back in 2012).

Loan Originator Perspective

“Rate sheets continue to improve thanks to the ongoing drama in Europe. I still believe that rate sheets are not reflecting all of the recent gains, for that reason I would float overnight. Right now data doesn’t matter, its all about Europe and that drama will continue.” -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

“Friday’s treasury/MBS’ gains demonstrated world markets’ Brexit concerns, and today’s continued strength confirmed them: the “Smart Money” is betting that economic conditions globally will worsen due to Brexit. Rate sheets improved again today, and as yields continue to drop, secondary managers will become more willing to price aggressively. This is NOT a short term panic situation, it’s a serious global concern that will play out over months/years, not days/weeks. I am strongly in the float camp, and that’s not typical. Those close to closing may want to wait as long as possible to pull the lock trigger, because until something big changes, the trend is our friend.” -Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED – 3.5%
FHA/VA – 3.25%
15 YEAR FIXED – 2.75%
5 YEAR ARMS – 2.75 – 3.25% dependent upon the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

Markets had been primarily concerned with the timing of the Fed’s second rate hike (after they first hiked in December 2015)

The possibility that the U.K. would vote to exit the European Union (Brexit) has since taken over as the biggest flashpoint for markets.

The Fed freely admits it did not hike in June for this reason and because it would like to make certain that jobs numbers aren’t getting a bigger turn for the worse. Mortgage rates moved farther into 3-year lows as a result.

Brexit happened and rates rejoiced. Lock if you love the result. The longer term trend remains positive regardless, but periodic corrections toward higher rates continue to be a risk.

As always, please take into account that the rates discussed generally make reference to what we’ve termed ‘best-execution’ (that’s, essentially the most frequently quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed interest rate for top tier borrowers, based not simply on the outright price, but in addition ‘bang-for-the-buck.’ Generally speaking, our best-execution rate has a tendency to connote no origination or discount points–though this could certainly vary–and tends to predict Freddie Mac’s weekly survey with high accuracy. It’s safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two because of Freddie’s once-a-week polling method).

So if you have been considering purchasing your new home, now may be the opportune time to do so. Nick & Cindy Davis  are here to assist you in the Tampa Bay area. We are always available at 813-300-7116 or you can simply click here and one of us will be in touch.

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