The 2019 hurricane season has actually been calm up to now, however a fading warm-water pattern caused NOAA to increase their prediction to 10-17 named storms before it’s over. Hurricane season may look to be off to a lazy start but the federal forecaster say that’s almost certainly going to change.
National Weather Service Raises Its Hurricane Forecast
The agency that issues the long-range weather forecast on Thursday upgraded the prospects for the coming months from average to above average.
By the numbers, that could mean anywhere from around 10 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes. That includes the two named storms this year thus far, Tropical Storm Andrea and Hurricane Barry, which hit Louisiana last month.
The upgraded forecast of an above-average season (from a 30% chance in May to 45% in August) is basically as a result of dissipation of El Niño, a warm weather cycle that generally makes it harder for storms to form, said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“We expect El Niño impacts to progressively fade as we go through the season,” said Bell in a media call.
NOAA does not offer predictions on storm landfall, like where hurricanes or tropical storms may hit or how strong they’ll be when they do. That’s only predictable within the few days before a storm does hit, Bell said.
August through October is traditionally the most active time in the six-month annual hurricane season.
“Historically, this is when about 95% of all hurricanes and named storms form,” he said.
Bell revealed that ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic are running about half a degree above normal. Hotter water temperatures fuel storms to become stronger, but Bell said ocean temperatures don’t have much effect on a seasonal forecast.
“That’s not really a factor as far as a season outlook,” he said.
Bell said long-term climate patterns, like global warming, also are dwarfed in a short-term seasonal outlook by other atmospheric factors.
Earlier this week, Colorado State University released its mid-season forecast too, which called for a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Researchers predict 14 total named storms, seven total hurricanes and two total major hurricanes.
Both forecasts include warnings from researchers that this is the right time to be ready for a storm, as peak season heats up.
“Everyone should know their risk, have a plan and be prepared,” Bell said.
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