The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in February after a decline in January. The Index now stands at 131.4, a nearly 10-point increase from January’s 121.7.
The Existing Situation Index – consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved, moving from 170.2 to 173.5.
The Expectations Index – consumers’ outlook for income, business and labor market conditions 6 months from now- increased from 89.4 last month to 103.4 this month.
U.S. consumer confidence spikes in Feb.
“Consumer confidence rebounded in February, following three months of consecutive declines,” says Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index improved, as consumers continue to view both business and labor market conditions favorably. Expectations, which had been negatively impacted in recent months by financial market volatility and the government shutdown, recovered in February. Looking ahead, consumers expect the economy to continue expanding.”
Franco states that The Conference Board’s economic forecasts, however, peg the speed of economic expansion to moderate in 2019.
Current conditions
Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved moderately in February. Those stating business conditions are “good” increased from 36.4% to 41.2%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” was unchanged at 10.8 percent.
Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was mixed. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” decreased slightly from 46.7% to 46.1%, but those claiming jobs are “hard to get” also decreased, from 12.6% to 11.8%.
Future conditions
Consumers’ optimism with regards to the short-term future rebounded in February. The percentage of individuals expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased from 16.3% to 19.7%; those expecting business conditions will worsen decreased from 13.8% to 8.9%.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market’s future also improved. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 15.3% to 18.5%, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined from 16.2% to 12.2%.
Relating to their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement rose from 17.7% to 20.0%, nevertheless the proportion expecting a decrease also increased from 6.8% to 8.5%.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is completed for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was February 15.
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